Wednesday, 4 a.m.
5 Observations
1. If you aren't convinced yet about the strength of the opener, you will be. Too many teams simply don't have enough starters and, as a result, will try to limit the matchups. You'll see more in the future.
2. The reason I would vote for Kevin Cash for Manager of the Year is simple. Swap the guys in the dugouts. I think Cash could manage talented, high-paid players. But could those guys squeeze 90 wins out of the Rays?
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3. Blake Snell ... worst to first. If he doesn't win the Cy Young Award, they ought to stop giving it away.
4. There is a small dark cloud over the head of Kevin Kiermaier. He won't be traded yet, because his return would be too small. But it would be nice if he could stay healthy for a year.
5. Well, I guess I was wrong about the size of mistake that letting go of Jim Hickey was, huh? If there is an assistat coach of the year, you have to give it to Kyle Snyder.
On Other Fields
(Where the Rays would have ranked in other divisions)
AL East 3 18
AL Central 2 1
AL West 3 13
NL East 1 (tied) --
NL Central 3 5 1/2
NL West 3 1 1/2
ESPN's Cy Young Predictor
1. Blake Snell. 21-5 1.89 221
2. Blake Treinen. 9-2 0.78 100
3. Corey Kluber 20-7 2.89 222
4. Justin Verlander 16-9 2.52 290
5. Edwin Diaz 0-4 1.96 124
Areas Where They Missed the Playoffs
1. They lost in on the road. They were just 39-41, as opposed to 51-30 at home.
2. They lost it to the National League. The Rays were just 7-13 against the NL.
3. They lost it in the late innings. The Rays were fifth in the majors with 22 blown saves, including eight by Sergio Romo.
4. They lost in close games. The Rays played in 59 one-run games, and they lost a league-tying (Arizona) 31 of them.
5. They lost it on the basepaths. The Rays were caught stealing 51 times this year, which was 10 more than the next-to-last finisher (the White Sox) and 30 more than the league leaders (New York and Oakland).
Comparing the Years
2017 2018
694 Runs 716
,245 Average ,258
228 HRs 150
88 Stolen Bases 128
1,538 Strikeouts 1,388
Best Rays Seasons
1. 2008 97
2. 2010 96
3. 2014 92
4. 2011 91
5. 2012 90
2018 (tie) 90
Top 5 Players
1. Blake Snell
2. Joey Wendle
3. Mallex Smith
4. Matt Duffy
5. Tommy Pham
5 Best Wins
July 22 6-4, Miami Robertson walk-off grand slam
Sept. 10 6-5, Cleveland Ji-Man Choi walk-off two-run HR
June 24 7-6, Yankees Jake Bauers walk-off solo HR
April 27 8-6, Twins Carlos Gomez walk-off two-run HR
Aug. 7 4-3, Orioles Adames walk-off solo HR
5 Tough Losses
1. Sept. 20. This one still stings. The Rays were ahead of Toronto 8-2 in the ninth, but for some reason, Kevin Cash stayed with Jamie Schultz for 41 pitches. Then Sergio Romo poured gas on the fire, and the Rays lost a 9-8 game.
2. Sept. 14. The A's won 31 one-run games this year. The Rays lost 31 one-run games. But never was the disparity as noticeable as when the A's took a 10-inning, 2-1 win over the Rays as Khris Davis hit his 42nd home run.
3. May 13. The Baltimore Orioles were dreadful in 2018, but not so much against the Rays. They beat the Rays 17-1 on this night.
4. June 1. Seattle's Mitch Haniger hit a 3-2 fastball in the bottom of the 13th for a walk-off victory.
5. July 7. Jose Bautista hit a grand slam for his first walk-off homer ever to lift the New York Mets to a 5-1 victory.
Most Ray Wins, Season
1. Blake Snell, 2018 21-5
2. David Price, 2012 20-5
3. David Price, 2010 19-6
4. Matt Moore, 2013 17-4
5. Ryan Yarbrough, 2018 16-6
James Shields, 2011 16-12
5 Who Finished Strong
Before Aug. 1 After August 1
.248 Tommy Pham .343
.200 Willy Adames .329
.285 Joey Wendle .324
.288 Mallex Smith .309
.135 Brandon Lowe. .272
(Lowe did not come up until after August 1. His before-and-after totals are as of August 24.)
.
5 Who Didn't Finish Strong
.221 Carlos Gomez .152
.243 Jake Bauers .153
.226 Jesus Sucre .179
.195 Kevin Kiermaier .236
.304 Matt Duffy .272
5 Borderline Guys Worth Bringing Back
1. C.J. Cron
2. Ji-Man Choi
3. Chaz Roe
4. Kevin Kiermaier
5. Jesus Sucre
5 Top Rookies
1. Joey Wendle
2. Willy Adames
3. Ryan Yarbrough
4. Yonny Chirinos
5. Ryne Stanek
5 Questions
1. Who is going to close out games in 2019? Sergio Romo is running on fumes, but there doesn't seem to be anyone equipped to finish games on the roster. Could Jose Alvardo do it? Ryne Stanek? Or might that be the Rays' only investment in the off-season?
2. Who is among the next wave of youngsters to arrive, and will there be any room for them once they get here? Already, we have heard the trumpeting for Wander Franco and Jesus Sanchez, but the roster doesn't have a lot of slots left.
3. Can any of this year's long relievers take over as regular starter? That's the plan long-term. With Ryan Yarbough, Yonny Chirinos and Jalen Beeks, there are possibilities. But don't expect the Rays to wander far from their new toy.
4. Are the Rays a good argument that the MLB playoffs should expand by two teams? Hey, it isn't as if the sport could use the additional interest. The NHL and NBA each allow 16 teams into the post season and the NFL allows 12. Major League baseball allows just 10.
5. Will Kevin Cash stay up nights thinking about lineups? In the middle of the infield, does he go with Willy Adames and Daniel Roberson? With Joey Wendle? What about Brandon Lowe? Who does he play in the outfield? Smith, Kiermaier and Pham? Does Austin Meadows get a thought? How about catcher? Michael Perez was impressive. Nick Chiuffo had his moments? There are others in the minors. And isn't it supposed to be difficult?
5 Best Averages
1. Joey Wendle .300
2. Mallex Smith .296
3. Matt Duffy .294
4. Willy Adames .278
5. Tommy Pham .275
-- Pham hit .343 with the Rays This is his combined average for the year.
5 Worst Averages
1. Kevin Kiermaier .217
2. Johnny Field .213
3. Carlos Gomez .208
4. Jesus Sucre .209
5. Jake Bauers .201
League Stats
Wins 21. Blake Snell
ERA 1.89 Blake Snell
Batting 8. Joey Wendle
11. Mallex Smith
12. Matt Duffy
Stolen bases 3. Mallex Smith
Home runs 25. C.J. Cron
Saves 8. Sergio Romo
Blown saves 1. Sergio Romo
Singles 10. Matt Duffy
Triples 2. Mallex Smith
3.Kevin Kiermaier
Attendance 29. Rays (All the way to next to last)
Where Did They Go?
(Say this for the Rays. They know when to trade a guy. With a couple of exceptions, they didn't miss their 2017 regulars.)
Logan Morrison, Twins .186 15 homers
Brad Miller, Brewers .230
Adeiny Hechavarria, Yankees. .194
Evan Longoria, Giants .244
Denard Span, Mariners .272
Corey Dickerson, Pirates .300
Steven Souza, Diamondbacks. .222 5 homers
Tim Beckham, Orioles .230
Chris Archer , Pirates 3-3 4.33 ERA
Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox 3-3 3.33 ERA
Alex Cobb, Orioles 5-15 4.90 ERA
Jake Odorizzi, Twins 7-10 4.49 ERA
Alex Colome, Mariners 5-0 2.53 ERA 1 Save
Brad Boxberger, Diamondbacks 3-7 4.39 ERA 32 Saves
Predictions
Wild Card Games
New York Yankees over Oakland
Cubs over Rockies
First Round
Chicago over Milwaukee
Braves over Dodgers
Astros over Indians
Red Sox over Yankees
Second Round
Chicago over Braves
Red Sox over Astros
World Series
Red Sox over Chicago
5 Closing Thoughts
1. I don't know if this season will help the Rays get their new stadium. But it couldn't hurt to make the voters smile.
2. I still think the Rays would have been tough to beat in a one-game playoff with Snell on the mound.
3. Instead of Saturday concerts by over-the-hill bands, the Rays' post-game will now feature soccer matches by over-the-hill midfielders.
4. Quick proposition: Who wins mmore games in 2019? Tyler Glasnow or Chris Archer?
5. This team has set up the Rays for the future for either success or disappointment. Next year, people won't project 100 games. They'll expect Snell to be one of the league's best pitchers, and Joey Wendle to be a versatile player who hits nearly .300 and Willy Adames to break out. They'll think Mallex Smith is going to be a star and Ryan Yarbrough will win in double digits and the opener to make sense again. All of that's tougher to deal with for the players, but it's baseball.
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