Sunday, 4 a.m.
Suppose they could be average. Pedestrian. Run-of-the-mill.
How good would the Tampa Bay Rays be then?
By now, you are used to the starting rotation of the Rays being excellent, deep and talented. You are used to them making the opposing hitters look as bad as, well, the Rays hitters.
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But Blake Snell is gone, and Charlie Morton with him. Both of them carried price tags far excess of their production, especially on the most miserly team in the majors. In the last regular season, Snell won four games. Morton won two. So maybe part of you understands why the team didn't want to shell out $26 million for the duo.
But someone has to win games, don't they? And while the bullpen remains effective (assuming Nick Anderson returns to form), the starting pitching looks like a blindfolded man throwing darts. Chris Archer didn't win any games last year. Michael Wacha won one. Rich Hill won one. Collin McHugh won four. Even the acknowledged ace, Tyler Glasnow, won only five.
Are hitters nervous yet?
Granted, those win totals will go up, because teams will play a full 162 games this year instead of another 60, but can the Rays pick-and-choose enough to get into contention? Can they squeeze five innings, sometimes maybe six, out of a starter until they can get to their one-man-an-inning bullpen show?
The hitting will be about the same. They have some players capable of the big hit in the big moment, but they won't blow you away with power or average. The bullpen will be strong, but it also looks to be overworked.
That brings us back to the starting pitching.
Now, granted, Kyle Snyder has done impressive work in his years with the Rays, and I have no doubt that someone - Hill or McHugh or Wacha or holdover Ryan Yarbrough -- can have a surprise year. But baseball is a game of attrition, an everyday game that can sap the strength of normal pitchers.
From the looks of it, the Yankees are better. From the looks of it, the Blue Jays are better. So does that leave the Rays in a struggle for third place? One estimate had the Rays' over-under at 86 1/2 for the coming year. That probably won't make the playoffs.
Will that be good enough? Or will this team do like the 2009 Rays, who followed up a World Series appearance with 84 wins and a third-place finish.
Okay, admit it. The tank is not empty. Willie Adames is a fine player, and Kevin Kiermaier can take your breath away in center. Austin Meadows should be better. Mike Brousseau is a cult hero. And goodness knows how good Randy Arozarena can be.
But eventually, the ball has to get to the catcher's glove often enough for a team to succeed.
Let's lay it out. If this team wins the AL East again, then Eric Neander is a genius. If it makes the wild-card slot, then Kevin Cash is amazing.
If it finishes worse, however, who will care?
